Corinthians +0.25 +107 2units
Gremio has been playing poorly the last few games, starting with their loss @Recife. They are missing two key players due to the Olympics, Wallace & Luan.
Wallace is the key defender in their midfield, by far their best defensive midfielder imo and equally important for their offensive gameplan because its him, who usually initiates their offense after their opponents turnovers. Without him, their transition game is very slow, which allows the opposing defense to settle and therefore leads to far less counter attacks & scoring opportunities. Luan is their best striker, not only according to stats (goals scored/assists) but he is also very important away from the stat sheet because he is doing lots of small things, that don't show up in the box score: He is one of few players in Serie A that regularly takes shots from 20-25m out and has a very good shooting technique, thereby forcing the opposing centre backs to come further out, creating space in the middle for his teammates. Plus he is moving around a lot, creating space for other players to get behind the defense....with a few other bench players missing, GREs offense is very thin, especially since Bolaños is out of form since the Copa America.
Gremio is usually strong at home, COR are without Elias (suspended), perhaps also missing Fagner but that line should be closer to -110, possibly lower, especially with COR being one of the better road teams.
Another thing I like here is GRE having huge problems defending set pieces, regularly giving up lots of goals after free kicks and corner kicks as evidenced by their losses @Palmeiras and @Recife. COR not only are a very good counter attacking team, but also are rather successful after set pieces themselves.
Atletico Mineiro +0.25 -125 5units
Atletico is in 2nd place, but there season didn't really start until they were eliminated from Copa Libertadores. Until that point, they were focussing on that competition and ravaged by injuries, regularly missing more than ten players, at times fielding their 2nd unit to rest their regulars for Libertadores games. After getting back their formerly injured players, they added Fred from Fluminense, had a coaching change and now are 9-1-1 over their last 11 league games. Due to the Olympics, they are without two players: One is their backup-goalkeeper, so thats irrelevant. The other one is Douglas Santos, a great leftback who soon should be playing at one of Europes top clubs and part of the Brazilian national team. Obviously thats a downgrade, but Atletico has by far the deepest roster of any Serie A club and has been replacing him for quite some time already because of the Copa America in June. So they have a very decent replacement who got lots of playing time already. Other than that they are without their playmaker Cazares, who has been out a few games already and Luan is doubtful, but right now Luan would be a bench player anyways and even his bench spot is taken by Clayton, who was one of last seasons shootingstars.
They are almost at full strength, have been playing very well lately and should be top favorite to win the title this year.
On the other hand Santos had a great run, but have struggled in their most recent games: A very lucky win @Vitoria, then they beat a weak and unorganized Cruzeiro squad, before a great performance by goalkeeper Vanderlei saved them a rather undeserved point vs Flamengo (plus FLA was denied a penalty shot in injury time) and then they lost 1-0 @America Mineiro, by far the worst team in Serie A this year.
Their struggles come as no surprise, too: Even though they added 2-3 good players this year, Santos has been extremely dependent offensively on their magical trio: Lucas Lima, Gabriel Barbosa & Ricardo Oliveira. Lima is suspended here, Gabigol is playing for Brazil at the Olympics and Ricardo Oliveira missed pretty much the last 8 months due to serious knee problems. Goalkeeper Vanderlei is suspended, too, for this game and leftback Zeca and defensive midfielder Thiago Maia are at the Olympics, too. Oliveira is completely out of form and doubtful because of his knee. That leaves them without half of their regular team and like I said, depth always has been their weak point.
Homefield advantage is ok, but in the current situation Santos simply can't be favored over Atletico in this game.
Gremio has been playing poorly the last few games, starting with their loss @Recife. They are missing two key players due to the Olympics, Wallace & Luan.
Wallace is the key defender in their midfield, by far their best defensive midfielder imo and equally important for their offensive gameplan because its him, who usually initiates their offense after their opponents turnovers. Without him, their transition game is very slow, which allows the opposing defense to settle and therefore leads to far less counter attacks & scoring opportunities. Luan is their best striker, not only according to stats (goals scored/assists) but he is also very important away from the stat sheet because he is doing lots of small things, that don't show up in the box score: He is one of few players in Serie A that regularly takes shots from 20-25m out and has a very good shooting technique, thereby forcing the opposing centre backs to come further out, creating space in the middle for his teammates. Plus he is moving around a lot, creating space for other players to get behind the defense....with a few other bench players missing, GREs offense is very thin, especially since Bolaños is out of form since the Copa America.
Gremio is usually strong at home, COR are without Elias (suspended), perhaps also missing Fagner but that line should be closer to -110, possibly lower, especially with COR being one of the better road teams.
Another thing I like here is GRE having huge problems defending set pieces, regularly giving up lots of goals after free kicks and corner kicks as evidenced by their losses @Palmeiras and @Recife. COR not only are a very good counter attacking team, but also are rather successful after set pieces themselves.
Atletico Mineiro +0.25 -125 5units
Atletico is in 2nd place, but there season didn't really start until they were eliminated from Copa Libertadores. Until that point, they were focussing on that competition and ravaged by injuries, regularly missing more than ten players, at times fielding their 2nd unit to rest their regulars for Libertadores games. After getting back their formerly injured players, they added Fred from Fluminense, had a coaching change and now are 9-1-1 over their last 11 league games. Due to the Olympics, they are without two players: One is their backup-goalkeeper, so thats irrelevant. The other one is Douglas Santos, a great leftback who soon should be playing at one of Europes top clubs and part of the Brazilian national team. Obviously thats a downgrade, but Atletico has by far the deepest roster of any Serie A club and has been replacing him for quite some time already because of the Copa America in June. So they have a very decent replacement who got lots of playing time already. Other than that they are without their playmaker Cazares, who has been out a few games already and Luan is doubtful, but right now Luan would be a bench player anyways and even his bench spot is taken by Clayton, who was one of last seasons shootingstars.
They are almost at full strength, have been playing very well lately and should be top favorite to win the title this year.
On the other hand Santos had a great run, but have struggled in their most recent games: A very lucky win @Vitoria, then they beat a weak and unorganized Cruzeiro squad, before a great performance by goalkeeper Vanderlei saved them a rather undeserved point vs Flamengo (plus FLA was denied a penalty shot in injury time) and then they lost 1-0 @America Mineiro, by far the worst team in Serie A this year.
Their struggles come as no surprise, too: Even though they added 2-3 good players this year, Santos has been extremely dependent offensively on their magical trio: Lucas Lima, Gabriel Barbosa & Ricardo Oliveira. Lima is suspended here, Gabigol is playing for Brazil at the Olympics and Ricardo Oliveira missed pretty much the last 8 months due to serious knee problems. Goalkeeper Vanderlei is suspended, too, for this game and leftback Zeca and defensive midfielder Thiago Maia are at the Olympics, too. Oliveira is completely out of form and doubtful because of his knee. That leaves them without half of their regular team and like I said, depth always has been their weak point.
Homefield advantage is ok, but in the current situation Santos simply can't be favored over Atletico in this game.
